Note: this is the final part of a three-part series on political essays concerning the state of global politics in the post-Cold War era. Read the introduction here.
Clock Tower, Freetown, Sierra Leone, October 2009 by www.itsayshere.org
Yes, I do realize that this post is coming four months after the last one in the series, and that it completes a goal of mine for the spring semester, but it’s finished nonetheless. I think that this final post was actually the inspiration for the whole project, because last year I did a lot of reading of the global politics blog Coming Anarchy and wanted to read the article by Robert Kaplan from which it takes its name. The essay, 26 pages when printed from the internet, is quite the read, so I decided to take the time to read it and summarize it for folks who would like some familiarity with it but don’t have the attention span.
In this essay, Kaplan argues that “the political and cartographic implications of postmodernism—an epoch of themeless juxtapositions, in which the classificatory grid of nation-states is going to be replaced by a jagged-glass pattern of city-states, shanty-states, nebulous and anarchic regionalisms.” Now let’s figure out what that dense statement is all about.
Introduction
The author starts with stories from the West African country of Sierra Leone, telling of the utter lawlessness that reigns over city-dwellers struggling to reconcile their pastoral village society with an urban setting. He uses West Africa in this article as a template for what he believes the rest of the world will one day follow.
A Premonition of the Future
Following those anecdotes of anarchy, Kaplan points out that the official governments in the region have very little real power over the land within their borders—a disorder similar to Europe before the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. This has happened because of a combination of the political and environmental problems present there. He predicts first, that the current lines between (West African) countries will soon dissolve because of the impractical division of the urbanized coast into multiple nations, and second, that foreign countries will shy away from Africa at large due to malaria’s prevalence. Finally, because of said disease as well as the collapse of the environment, “a coming upheaval” of anarchy is the continent’s fate. An understanding of “environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clash, geographic destiny, and the transformation of war” will explain Kaplan’s thesis of an African, and possibly global, coming anarchy.
The Environment as a Hostile Power [environmental scarcity]
Coming to terms with scarce resources is the first key to comprehending the probably anarchic future. Population growth will put stress on such basic resources as water, land and soil where growth occurs—mainly in developing nations where lawlessness and anti-democratic forms of government will prosper.
Skinhead Cossacks, Juju Warriors [cultural and racial clash]
This imminent shortage of natural resources, Kaplan tells us, “will inflame existing hatreds and affect power relationships.” He references the civilization clash of Samuel P. Huntington’s then-recent essay, “The Clash of Civilizations?” (which I summarized here), but adds basic cultural and tribal clash to Huntington’s framework. The author points out the growing tension among the Turks and the rest of the Middle East as an example. Rather than conflicts among nation-states, Kaplan agrees with Huntington that wars among larger cultures will dominate in the next phase of world politics.
The Past is Dead [a microcosm of the argument: the Middle East]
Recounting a description of prosperous “slums” outside of cities in Turkey, the author displays the strength of a new Turkish culture. He summarizes this section, saying, “[e]verywhere in the developing world at the turn of the twenty-first century these new men and women, rushing into the cities, are remaking civilizations and redefining their identities in terms of religion and tribal ethnicity which do not coincide with the borders of existing states.”
The Lies of Mapmakers [geographic destiny]
Kaplan basically states that modern maps—and the Western notion of nation-states that they represent—preclude an understanding of the future in which borders are artificial and identity is cultural rather than national. He gives as an example the case of the Kurds, a numerous people scattered among many Middle East countries but without one of their own. In spite of Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian, and Turkish borders, a Kurdistan exists in northern Mesopotamia.
A New Kind of War [transformation of war]
In addition to pointing out that war can actually liberate people living in poverty, the author heavily cites military historian Martin van Creveld’s book The Transformation of War to show that in the future, wars won’t be between nation-states, but “will be those of communal survival, aggravated or, in many cases, caused by environmental scarcity.” Kaplan foresees the dissolution of the distinction between broad-scale war and local crime, leading to the collapse of weak states that can’t ensure security.
The Last Map
In place of the orderly, organized world map we are all familiar with, the author proposes a future map in which “centers of power” replace borders and “buffer entities” replace lines on the map. He also predicts the failure of India and Pakistan as countries, which, along with many African ones, make “no geographic or demographic sense.” Kaplan also discusses growing United States instability while nonchalantly referencing the dissolution of Canada—sans explanation! He does predict the success of an independent Québec, stable in its regional and cultural identity. The author’s ending reference to Joel Garreau’s The Nine Nations of North America is appropriate in light of this article’s subject matter.
My conclusion
I think, given the state of the world fifteen years after the article’s publication, the author’s thesis still holds weight. In fact, it even complements Huntington’s “The Clash of Civilizations?” However, even though we’re only a tenth of the way through this century, we have yet to see nation collapse on the scale predicted by Kaplan. Nevertheless, the drug war rages in Mexico while West Africa and the Indian subcontinent continue along the path highlighted in this article.
Read the original essay here.
